Kharg Island stores 9% of Iran oil exports and is the most likely first target for a US ground operation; it is easy to take but hard to defend because the coastline and Zagros mountains force mission creep expanding the invasion inland
Status, resolution dates, and latest source for this prediction.
Status
Last updated
Mar 19, 2026, 05:47 PM
Audit history: status and probability changes over time.
The prediction has a moderate starting point of 50%. Given the strategic importance of Kharg Island for US operation and the notes suggesting it's an easy target, a slight increase to 55% reflects a growing likelihood based on its relevance in a potential invasion plan.